Chapter 7 VSPPs calculation

Estimated electricity generation (energy) can be found in equation (6.1).

In this project, VSPP contract capacity and electricity generation are considered. An information is taken from PDP2018 Rev.1 and PDP2022 Case 7. VSPP contract capacity and electricity generation are summarized by Power Development Planning Section (แผนกวางแผนพัฒนากำลังผลิตไฟฟ้า (หผฟ-ย.)), Generation System Development Planning Department (กองวางแผนพัฒนากำลังผลิตไฟฟ้า (กผฟ-ย.)), Generation and Transmission System Planning Division (ฝ่ายวางแผนระบบไฟฟ้า (อผฟ.)).

7.1 VSPPs in the PDP2018 revision 1 (PDP2018 Rev.1)

7.1.1 Contract capacity

The summary of VSPP contract capacity and electricity generation is given by Power Development Planning Section. The R code chunk is given below.

vsppcontractcapPDP2018R1 <-
  
  read_excel("raw_data/Domeสรุป VSPP_PDP18R1 and ร่าง PDP2022 เคส 7_เพิ่ม vspp.xlsx",
              sheet = "สรุป VSPP PDP18R1 Fuel",
              range = "A1:U13")%>%
  rename(vspp_mw = "VSPP (MW)") %>% 
  pivot_longer(-vspp_mw, names_to = "year_th",values_to = "contract_mw") %>% 
  mutate(year = as.numeric(year_th)-543) %>%
  pivot_wider(names_from = vspp_mw, values_from = contract_mw) %>% 
  rename_all(tolower) %>% 
  rename("hydro (small)" = hydro,
         msw = "waste",
         iew = "industrial waste",
         total = "รวม") %>% 
  pivot_longer(-year_th&-year, names_to = "fuel",values_to = "contract_mw")

Coal and diesel contract capacities are constant throughout PDP2018 rev.1 at 31.99 MW and 29.98 MW, respectively. Contract capacity from gas increases from 24.7 MW in 2018 to 31.5 MW in 2019 and remains constant till 2037. Biogas and biomass substantially increase from 2018-2037. In 2037, biogas, biomass, solar and wind contract capacity reach 1,535.48 MW and 3,887.27 MW, 11,574.56 MW, and 1,541.37 MW, respectively. Industrial waste starts from 5.91 MW in 2034 to 44 MW in 2037. Waste contract capacity reaches 601 MW from 2022 till 2037. Hydro power plant remains the same at 27.03 MW from 2018-2037. Energy efficiency plan (EE) increases 354 MW in 2032 and reaches 4,000 MW in 2037. Total contract capacity increases from 3,787.48 MW in 2018 to 23,304.21 MW in 2037.

VSPP contract capacity in the PDP2018 Rev.1

Figure 7.1: VSPP contract capacity in the PDP2018 Rev.1

7.1.2 Electricity generation

Electricity generation from VSPP in the PDP2018 Rev.1 code chunk is provided below.

vsppenergyPDP2018R1 <-
  read_excel("raw_data/Domeสรุป VSPP_PDP18R1 and ร่าง PDP2022 เคส 7_เพิ่ม vspp.xlsx",
             sheet = "สรุป VSPP PDP18R1 Fuel",
             range = "A16:U28")%>%
  rename(vspp_gwh = "VSPP (Energy)") %>% 
  pivot_longer(-vspp_gwh, names_to = "year_th",values_to = "energy_gwh") %>% 
  mutate(year = as.numeric(year_th)-543) %>%
  pivot_wider(names_from = vspp_gwh, values_from = energy_gwh) %>% 
  rename_all(tolower) %>% 
  rename("hydro (small)" = hydro,
         msw = "waste",
         iew = "industrial waste",
         total = "รวม") %>% 
  pivot_longer(-year_th&-year, names_to = "fuel",values_to = "vspp_gwh")

Total electricity generation from VSPP increases from 9,070.21 GWh in 2018 to 75,577.09 GWh in 2037. Electricity generation from coal, diesel and gas are at 69 GWh, 50 GWh and 70 GWh in 2037. Biogas and biomass significantly surge an electricity generation to 7,994.75 GWh and 23,226.09 GWh in 2037, respectively. Industrial waste provides an electricity to the system since 2034. The generation reaches 269.81 GWh in 2037. Waste power plant reaches its peak generation at 2,316.48 GWh since 2022. Electricity generation from small hydro power plant remains constant at 78.99 GWh. Solar and wind electricity significantly rise to 17,650.47 GWh and 3,353.10 GWh in 2037, respectively. Additional energy efficiency plan increases to 20,498.40 GWh in 2037.

VSPP electricity generation in the PDP2018 Rev.1

Figure 7.2: VSPP electricity generation in the PDP2018 Rev.1

7.2 VSPP in the PDP2022 Case 7

7.2.1 Contract capacity

The summary of VSPP contract capacity is given by Power Development Planning Section. The R code chunk is given below.

vsppcontractcapPDP2022C7<-
  
  read_excel("raw_data/Domeสรุป VSPP_PDP18R1 and ร่าง PDP2022 เคส 7_เพิ่ม vspp.xlsx",
           sheet = "สรุป VSPP PDP2022 Fuel",
           range = "A1:Q23")%>%
  rename(vspp_mw = "VSPP-Contract Capacity") %>% 
  pivot_longer(-vspp_mw, names_to = "year",values_to = "contract_mw") %>% 
  mutate(year_th = as.numeric(year)+543) %>%
  pivot_wider(names_from = vspp_mw, values_from = contract_mw) %>% 
  rename_all(tolower) %>% 
  pivot_longer(-year_th&-year, names_to = "fuel",values_to = "vspp_mw") #%>% 
  # ggplot(aes(x = as.factor(year), y = vspp_mw, group = fuel, color = fuel)) + 
  # geom_line()

Total contract capacity increases from 4,329.68 MW in 2022 to 15,393.37 MW in 2037. Coal, diesel, gas and waste heat contract capacity remain the same in the PDP2022 case 7. The contract capacity are 43.79 MW, 28.44 MW, 24.70 MW and 4.5 MW. Biogas and biomass rapidly increase from 2025 and reach 1,481.97 MW and 2,252.58 MW in 2037, respectively. Solar contract capacity rises to 10,150 MW. Floating solar starts to play its role since 2025. The capacity is 63.43 MW in 2037. Wind capacity remains constant at 58.39 MW during 2024-2037. Small hydro power plant contract capacity continuously rises from 58.59 MW in 2022 to 126.22 MW in 2037. Geothermal capacity is 21 MW in 2037. MSW contract capacity escalates in 3 periods. It starts from 179.56 MW in 2022. The capacity increases to 595.56 MW during 2026-2030, 795 MW from 2031-2034, 895.56 MW from 2035 onwards. Industrial waste capacity remains 30.78 MW from 2022-2025. The capacity reaches 242.78 MW in 2037.

VSPP contract capacity in the PDP2022 case 7

Figure 7.3: VSPP contract capacity in the PDP2022 case 7

7.2.2 Electricity generation

The summary of VSPP electricity generation is given by Power Development Planning Section. The R code chunk is given below.

vsppenergyPDP2022C7 <-
  
  read_excel("raw_data/Domeสรุป VSPP_PDP18R1 and ร่าง PDP2022 เคส 7_เพิ่ม vspp.xlsx",
             sheet = "สรุป VSPP PDP2022 Fuel",
             range = "A25:Q47")%>%
  rename(vspp_gwh = "VSPP-Generation") %>% 
  pivot_longer(-vspp_gwh, names_to = "year",values_to = "energy_gwh") %>% 
  mutate(year_th = as.numeric(year)+543) %>%
  pivot_wider(names_from = vspp_gwh, values_from = energy_gwh) %>% 
  rename_all(tolower) %>% 
  pivot_longer(-year_th&-year, names_to = "fuel",values_to = "vspp_gwh")

Total electricity generation increases from 11,882.25 GWh in 2022 to 42,213.86 GWh in 2037. Electricity generation from solar, biomass and biogas are the top 3 contributors. In 2037, electricity generation from those 3 contributors are 16,128.4 GWh, 12,577.94 GWh and 7,771.70 GWh. Floating solar and wind electricity generate 100 GWh and 84.16 GWh, respectively. MSW electricity generates 3,698 GWh. Coal, diesel, gas generate 138.44 GWh.

VSPP electricity generation in the PDP2022 case 7

Figure 7.4: VSPP electricity generation in the PDP2022 case 7

7.3 VSPPs electricity generation

7.3.1 The PDP2018 Rev.1

Total electricity generation from existing VSPPs is selected from 2019 onwards (see section 6.5 and figure 6.5). The R code chunk is given below.

merge_vspp_ext <- 
  
tot_vspp_ext %>% 
  filter(vspp == "tot_vspp_ext_gwh",
         year >= 2019) %>% 
  select(!vspp)

Total electricity generation from VSPPs in PDP2018 Rev.1 is selected from 2022 onwards (see section 7.1.2 and figure 7.2). The R code chunk is given below.

merge_vspp_pdp2018r1 <-
  
vsppenergyPDP2018R1 %>% 
  filter(fuel =="total",
         year >= 2022) %>% 
  select(!fuel)

The R code chunk below combines 2 data frames above. The full_join function is used. The function belongs to dplyr package which is a subset of tidyverse package (see section 2.1.2). Figure 7.5 illustrates total electricity generation from VSPPs in the PDP2018 Rev.1.

merge_vspp_ext_pdp <-
  full_join(merge_vspp_ext,
          merge_vspp_pdp2018r1,
          by = c("ene_vspp_ext_gwh" = "vspp_gwh"))

Total electricity generation from VSPPs increases from 11,665 GWh in 2019 to 75,577 GWh in 2037 (see Figure 7.5. The electricity generation increases 11% annually from 2019-2037. Solar, biomass and biogas are the top 3 electricity generation (see Figure 7.4).

Figure 7.5: Total electricity generation from VSPPs in PDP2018 Rev.1

7.3.2 The PDP2022 case 7

Total electricity generation from VSPPs in PDP2022 case 7 is selected from 2022 onwards (see section 7.2.2 and figure 7.4). The R code chunk is given below.

merge_vspp_pdp2023c7 <-
  
  vsppenergyPDP2022C7 %>% 
  filter(fuel =="total",
         year >= 2022) %>% 
  select(!fuel)

Again, the full_join function is used. The function belongs to dplyr package which is a subset of tidyverse package (see section 2.1.2). Figure 7.6 illustrates total electricity generation from VSPPs in the PDP2022 case 7.

merge_vspp_ext_pdp2023c7 <-
  full_join(merge_vspp_ext,
            merge_vspp_pdp2023c7,
            by = c("ene_vspp_ext_gwh" = "vspp_gwh"))

Total electricity generation from VSPPs increases from 11,665 GWh in 2019 to 42,214 GWh in 2037 (see Figure 7.6. Figure 7.9 illustrates the comparison of an electricity generation from VSPP in the PDP2018 Rev. 1 and the PDP2022 case 7. Electricity generation increases by 33,364 GWh or almost 80% of electricity generation in PDP2022 case 7 than those in PDP2018 Rev.1.

Figure 7.6: Total electricity generation from VSPPs in PDP2022 case 7

7.4 VSPP explanation

The VSPP contract capacity assumption obtained from Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE) on 31 January 2023. This data is used for (draft) AEDP2022. Files are used as follows:

  • Additional renewable power plant is obtained from file Z:\3PDP\PDP2022\Workshop\202301_AEDP 31 ม.ค. 2566\สถานะปัจจุบัน_รายภาค_รายปี.xlsx
  • Plexos results in case 7 Z:\3PDP\PDP2022\Workshop\202301_AEDP 31 ม.ค. 2566\Case 7 AEDP310166, 67.7MT CO2, wind1500\Detail_Generation_data_PDP2022_AEDP3101_wind(1500)_addSolar360.xlsx

Total VSPPs contract capacity in the PDP2018 Rev.1 is higher than those in the PDP2022 case 7 by 33.9% in 2037 (see Figure 7.7). Electricity generation from VSPPs shows a similar trend (see Figure 7.9).

VSPPs contract capacity

Figure 7.7: VSPPs contract capacity

Figure 7.8 illustrates VSPPs contract capacity by fuel type. Solar and biomass play important role in generating an electricity from VSPPs. Diesel, gas and wind is not an interested source of electricity in the PDP2022 case 7 compared to the PDP2018 Rev.1. Electricity generation from coal, small hydro power, industrial waste, MSW and waste heat increases in the PDP2022 case 7. Floating solar is a new electricity generation option. MSW contract capacity continues to rise. Electricity generation mix shows a similar trend (see Figure 7.10).

VSPPs contract capacity mix

Figure 7.8: VSPPs contract capacity mix

Electricity generation from VSPPs

Figure 7.9: Electricity generation from VSPPs

Electricity generation mix from VSPPs

Figure 7.10: Electricity generation mix from VSPPs